Prediction of Grain Products in Turkey

Abstract

Marketing of agricultural products starts with the planning of production on the farm and ends with the sale of food or other goods to manufacturers or consumers. Overall, marketing is a main part of successful agriculture but its significance is usually underestimated, particularly in developing countries. In Turkey, annual variations in grain production are reasonable and result primarily from changes in yields. Yield variation attend a time trend, commonly taken to be the result of climatic fluctuations and technology. Hence grain growers and the government frequently need to estimate grain yields to make decisions about the future. In this study, production amounts of grain species (wheat, rice and rye) are analyzed by using time series analysis including the Box-Jenkins method, the Exponential Smoothing method and the Regression method for the years 1991-2012. Each time point in the series represents the annual amounts of grain species in tonnes. After the data are stationary, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA(0,0,1)(1,0,0)₃) production of wheat, Power model production of rice and Holt Exponential model of rye were defined as the fitting models for this data. The forecasts are proposed for the years 2013 and 2014, while the increase and decrease in products are determined via the predicted values of grain production by examining changes in recent years.